Credit risk and regulatory capital in opaque private credit portfolios
Private credit has grown faster than the machinery for measuring it. Marks are infrequent, loan documentation is bespoke, and exposure data sits in unstandardised formats across borrowers, agents and administrators. The result is an asset class whose risk is difficult to observe and therefore difficult to capitalise consistently.
This dissertation takes US business development companies as its object of study, since they are among the few private credit vehicles with a public reporting obligation and therefore a usable data trail. It proposes a Value at Risk measure built on the Vasicek (2002) single-factor portfolio loss model, with obligor default probabilities derived structurally from Merton (1974), and compares the resulting capital figure against the treatment the same exposures would receive under Solvency II.
I provided a sensible range of Value-at-Risk, and validated the model with 200,000 Mone Carlo simulations. The result was a capital figure that was on the higher side of the Solvency II treatment, highlighting the prudential view of EIOPA on the risk of these exposures.
- Models
- Vasicek (2002) single-factor portfolio loss; Merton (1974) structural default
- Framework
- Solvency II standard formula, spread risk sub-module
- Universe
- US business development companies
- Measure
- Value at Risk, regulatory capital comparison